Location
This workshop was held at Sitterson Hall, Room 014 on the campus of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Description
The SAMSI program on Model Uncertainty: Mathematical and Statistical has brought statisticians and applied mathematicians together with disciplinary scientists from a variety of fields, to better understand the effects of modeling and uncertainty on predictions, typically called Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). This joint workshop was designed to bring together SAMSI researchers in UQ and UQ researchers who could not participate in the MUMS program, both to share the results of SAMSI research and to assess the overall state of UQ. The first half of the workshop highlighted research from the MUMS program year, addressing foundational questions in UQ, the strength and weaknesses of models, and computational methods and applications of UQ. The second half focused on non-SAMSI researchers, under the auspices of the second workshop on Statistical (and mathematical) Perspectives on Uncertainty Quantification (SPUQ), following up on the first SPUQ conference, held in 2017 at Georgia Tech University.
** A Poster Session was held on the evening of Thursday, May 16, 2019. **
Schedule and Supporting Media
Printed Schedule
Speaker Titles/Abstracts
Participant List
Workshop Posters
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Sitterson Hall, Room 014, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC
Time | Description | Speaker | Slides |
---|---|---|---|
8:50-9:00am | Welcome | David Banks, SAMSI | |
Bruce Pitman, University at Buffalo SAMSI | |||
9:00am-12:00pm | Data Fusion Working Group (with a break) | ||
A Review of Model Calibration Methods with an Application by Fusing Multiple Sources of Data from the Eruption of the Kilauea Volcano in 2018 | Mengyang Gu, Johns Hopkins University | ||
Bayesian CUSP Catastrophe Model for Sudden Changes | Zhuoqiong He, University of Missouri | ||
Data Fusion for Correlated, Shape-Restricted Curves with Varying Support | Paul Speckman, University of Missouri | ||
BREAK | |||
Bayesian Model Selection for a Linear Model with Grouped Covariates | Dongchu Sun, University of Missouri | ||
Bayesian Analysis for one-way MANOVA and a 3-Level Hierarchical Model | Chengyuan Song, ECNU and SAMSI | ||
Bayesian Smoothing Spline with a Generalized Constraint Operator | Cong Lin, ECNU and SAMSI | ||
12:00-1:30pm | LUNCH | ||
1:30-2:15pm | UQ in Materials Working Group | ||
SAMSI/NSF SEAS Materials Science Hackathon Results | Ralph Smith, N.C. State University | ||
2:15-5:15pm | Prediction Uncertainty and Extrapolation Working Group | ||
Stochastic Simulators: Issues, Methods, Unresolved Questions | Evan Baker, University of Exeter | ||
Embedding a Discrepancy in the Computer Model | Pierre Barbillon, AgroParisTech and SAMSI | ||
BREAK | |||
Some Strategies to Quantify Uncertainty for Extrapolation in Physical Systems | Aaron Danielson, Simon Fraser University | ||
Estimating Ocean Circulation Structure: Deterministic and Stochastic Simulators | Radu Herbei, Ohio State University | ||
Practical Bayesian Optimization for Agent Based Transportation Simulators | Laura Schultz and Vadim Sokolov, George Mason University | ||
5:30pm | Shuttle to Hotel |
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Sitterson Hall, Room 014, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC
Time | Description | Speaker | Slides |
---|---|---|---|
9:00-11:45am | Reduced Order Models Working Group | ||
Reduced Order Modeling of a Biphasic Cartilage Mixture Model under Dynamic Compressive Loading | Mansoor Haider, N.C. State University | ||
Parameter Subset Selection for Coupled Flow and Deformation Modeling | Sue Minkoff, University of Texas | ||
Dimension Reduction and Global Sensitivity Metrics using Active Subspaces for Coupled Flow and Deformation Modeling | Hyunjung Lee, Marquette University | ||
BREAK | |||
A Coupled Parallel Partial Emulator for Flow and Deformation Modeling | Elaine Spiller, Marquette University | ||
Parameter-Dependent Surrogate Model Development and Control Design for PZT Bimorph Actuators Employed for Micro-Air Vehicles | Nikolas Bravo, N.C. State University | ||
11:45am-1:15pm | LUNCH | ||
(Working Group Leaders in Room FB009 – to Discuss Final Report) | |||
1:15-3:30pm | Storm Surge Hazard and Risk Working Group | ||
Taylor Asher, UNC-Chapel Hill | |||
Some Thoughts on Estimating Input Distribution of Storm Surge Simulations | Whitney Huang, University of Victoria | ||
Emulation for Forecasting Storm Surge | Matthew Plumlee, Northwestern University | ||
Emulation for Large Storm Surge Simulation Ensemble | Won Chang, University of Cincinnati | ||
An Emulator Approach for Quantifying the Risk Due to Storm Surge | Pulong Ma, SAMSI | ||
3:30-4:00pm | BREAK | ||
4:00-5:45pm | Foundations of Model Uncertainty Working Group (with a break) | ||
Variable Selection in the Discrepancy Function Associated with a Simulator | Pierre Barbillon, AgroParis Tech and SAMSI | ||
Are Reported Likelihood Ratios Well Calibrated? | Jan Hannig, UNC-Chapel Hill | ||
Deep Fiducial Inference and Approximate Fiducial Computation | Gang Li, UNC-Chapel Hill | ||
Model Selection in the Context of Computer Models | Rui Paulo, Universidade de Lisboa | ||
6:00pm | Shuttle to Hotel |
Thursday, May 16, 2019
Sitterson Hall, Room 014, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC
Time | Description | Speaker | Slides |
---|---|---|---|
8:50-9:00am | Opening Remarks SPUQ | Elaine Spiller, Marquette University and SAMSI | |
Transformation and Additivity in Gaussian Process | Roshan Joseph, Georgia Institute of Technology | ||
9:00-10:00am | Keynote Address: Navier-Stokes, Spatial-temporal Kriging and Combustion Stability: a prominent example of physics-based analytics | Jeff Wu, Georgia Institute of Technology | |
10:00-10:30am | BREAK | ||
10:30am-12:00pm | Invited Session on Design in UQ | ||
Robust Experimental Design for Model Calibration | William Brenneman, Proctor and Gamble | ||
A Sequential Design Approach for Calibrating a Dynamic Population Growth Model | Devon Lin, Queens University | ||
Design of Experiments for Calibration of Computational Models | David Woods, University of Southampton | ||
12:00-1:30pm | LUNCH | ||
1:30-3:00pm | Invited Session on Exascale and Dimensional Analysis | ||
Some Pieces of Exascale Uncertainty Quantification | Earl Lawrence, Los Alamos National Laboratory | ||
Dimensional Analysis in Computer Experiments | Will Welch, University of British Columbia | ||
Gradient-Free Construction of Active Subspaces for Dimension Reduction | Brian Williams, Los Alamos National Laboratory | ||
3:00-3:30pm | BREAK | ||
3:30-5:00pm | Invited Session on “Perspectives on Sensitivity in UQ” | ||
Mathematical Perspective | Pierre Gremaud, N.C. State University | ||
Statistical Perspective | Max Morris, Iowa State University | ||
5:00-5:15pm | Discussion | Ralph Smith, N.C. State University | |
5:15-5:30pm | Floor Discussion | ||
5:30-7:00pm | Poster Session and Reception | ||
7:15pm | Shuttle to Hotel |
Friday, May 17, 2019
Sitterson Hall, Room 014, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC
Questions: email [email protected]